Expected wins and statistics

ESPN's John Hollinger uses a basketball team's points scored average and points scored-against (opponent's points) average to calculates the same team's expected wins in any given number of games:

To determine a team's expected winning percentage, take the points scored and raise them to the 16.5 power (i.e., multiply it by itself 16.5 times). That's your numerator. Then, in the denominator, raise the team's points scored to the 16.5 power, raise the points allowed to the 16.5 power, then add those two products. Finally, to convert from an expected winning percentage to Expected Wins, multiply by the team's games played.

Expected Wins = Games played * [Points16.5 / (Points16.5 + Points allowed16.5)]

Basketballreference.com has a similiar formula using a power of 14:

EW
Expected wins; the formula is G*(Tm PTS14 / (Tm PTS14 + Opp PTS14)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins.

I should have taken a stat class or two in school. Can someone versed in statistics tell me how this formula works? What does taking the points scored and scored-against to the 16.5th or 14th power do exactly? Am I correct in assuming that this formula favors "powerhouse overdog" teams that blow out their opponents over "clutch underdog" teams that win close games?

New Feature

The most recent links from del.cio.us. Maybe this will stop me from constantly emailing and bugging people with links in an attempt to justify the amount of time wasted bottomfeeding the net.

81

I did not even find out until this morning. While I was busy trying to get back to Osaka from Taipei, The Mamba was busy swallowing the Raptors whole, ho, holy shit. 81!?

I ain't jumping on no band wagon. Even as a Laker's follower, I have never been a Kobe fan and I am still not. But 81 is a lot of points.

Second only to Wilt Chamberlain's 100, in fact. Both Mark Stein and John Hollinger argue that Kobe's 89 is greater than Wilt's 100 because 1) Kobe did it from the perimeter; 2) Kobe played less minutes; 3) Kobe needed less shots from the floor and from the line; 4) the Lakers needed Kobe's points, Wilt's Warriors were blowing out the Knicks by halftime and 4) Kobe's game had a slower pace and less possessions.

Either way, he's still 19 and 19,998 shy off the Big Dipper's milestones.

Can 81 be topped? I dunno. But I'll say this for the record: if Kobe tops 81, I think I will have to buy a Kobe jersey and up my jersey collection to 2, and maybe a pair of men-tights too.

Blogging from

Osaka Kansai airport North, over a pint of Bass and sausages.

I knew bringing the laptop with me to Taiwan was a good idea. I know I'm acting like a country boy in big city, but I'm beside myself and giddy with connectivity.

How about this one?

Caption?

I have no words to caption this picture...

Com cards

It's only the first day of school and I've already got 3 classes!? There's no justice in the Japanese educational system. And I get to come home to yet another Simona-less evening too. Wonderful. Maybe the Raptors/Nets game would finish downloading by then and I get to see the Vinsane slap.

For the short 3rd trimester we are starting this communication card thing. Basically, to encourage students to use practical English outside of classrooms and make full use of my ¥3,000,000 (yes, I AM a multi-millionaire), they get a communication card/lottery ticket, which can be redeemed for prizes at the end of the trimester, for having a short conversation with me or writing a short letter. When an ALT's charm fails to motivate students' English use, bribe.

I have mixed feelings about this. It could be nice to have more interactions with the students. But it could also purge all contacts of sincerity given that it was, ahem, bought. Worse, I might just have to kill myself if I can't even bribe these teenagers to talk to me. Me! Look at me! Give me attention! Me!

Then again, maybe bribe was not really the point in this little exercise. According to Cultures and Orginizations (book I've been reading and I recommend heartily to anyone) Japan is at the high extreme of the UAI-index, which meant that broadly speaking, it's culture is extremely uncomfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity. High uncertainty avoidance can manifest itself in anything from xenophobia and higher levels of stress and anxiety, to more new car purchase relative to used cars and longer turnaround for cashing bounced checks. In schools, students are more comfortable in structured learning situations and concerned with getting the right answers rather than good discussions (these all ring true, but unexpectedly to me, Hofstede also generalized that strong uncertainty avoidance also meant that results are attributed more to circumstance and luck, rather than student's own ability).

I suppose that predicating conversation on communication cards provides the proper context of in which Japanese students feel more comfortable to participate?

Fantasy updates, and NBA Chinese style

Yahoo! Fantasy Football--Primetime

Cho-do: 3rd place finish.

QB E. Manning
WR R. Wayne
WR J. Jurevicius
RB L. Johnson
RB R. Johnson
TE J. Witten
W/R L. Tomlinson
DEF New England
D D. Edwards
BEN T. Glenn and co.

Cold streaks by Tomlinson and Eli during the playoffs costed me the championship. Lost the semis by 20 points, but won the 3rd place game by 18. And I thought I would be a shoe-in for the trophy way back in week 10 after the LJ phenomenon.

Yahoo! Head to Head--The Bush Meat Bushleague

Cowbell Champ: currently 1st place (leading 2nd place team by 1.5 games)

PG M. Bibby (Sac - PG)
SG P. Pierce (Bos - SG,SF)
G A. Iguodala (Phi - SG,SF)
SF R. Jefferson (NJ - SF)
PF D. Nowitzki (Dal - PF)
F Ke. Thomas (Sac - PF)
C J. Przybilla (Por - C)
C R. Wallace (Det - PF,C)
Util D. West (NOK - PF)
Util M. Jaric (Min - PG,SG)
BN L. Ridnour (Sea - PG)
BN J. Richardson (GS - SG)
BN M. Camby (Den - C)

Lots of changes since last update. Flirted with Chandler (whom developed an asthma immediately after I picked him up), Big Al (long on promise but short on production), Jasicivicius, Delante West (nice all-around game, maybe I will pick him up again soon for his 1 steal 1 block 1 3 averages), Boykins (pulled quad on the same day, played 0 games for me), Devin Harris (twice; was productive for more than a few games, averaged 18 points while on my roster), Curry, Kristic, Calderon (twice, immediately sprained ankle after second add). Latest adds Kenny Thomas (should be a fine supplement for Shreef's jaw and my Camby-less roster) and Ridnour (2nd stint with the assist man with no shot).

Doing well so far, basically a lock for the playoffs. However I haven't been able to put some distance between me and Tyler's 2nd place team. It is curious how he could stay with me by basically playing only his starters and not using his benches. His stats aren't impressive because he gets 5-6 less games every week but somehow he keeps coming up with wins. I thought scheduling quirks would have evened out by now.


Yahoo! Roto--Yahoo! Public 191944

Infinit monkey smell: currently 2nd place (.5 points off leader)

PG G. Arenas (Was - PG)
SG K. Hinrich (Chi - PG,SG)
SF L. Odom (LAL - SF)
PF E. Brand (LAC - PF)
F Ja. Jones (Pho - SF)
C B. Wallace (Det - PF,C)
C Z. Ilgauskas (Cle - C)
Util B. Knight (Cha - PG)
Util G. Wallace (Cha - SG,SF)
BN P. Brezec (Cha - C)
BN R. Artest (Ind - SF)
BN A. Stoudemire (Pho - PF,C)

Doing well. Only changes since last update were dropping Foyle and Walker for James Jones and Brezec, whom should improve my weaknesses in 3pt and FT% respectively. Right now 1st in blocks and assists, 2nd in steals and rebounds, 3rd in points and 4th in FG%, and these strengths should continue. 10th in turnovers, which can't be avoided. Amare's knee injury and Artest's cerebral injury are also blessings in disguise as I'm doing pretty well pacing my team--only played the 4th most games in the league.

On another non-fantasy but nonetheless basketball related note...I've been following the league by downloading NBA torrents, and many of these are NBA broadcasts from China. If you disregard the poor quality of their calls and the general lack of basketball knowledge (these guys make Walton sound like Wooden reincarnate), some of the comments made by the Chinese broadcasters (no play-by-play, basically 2 color guys) are riotous hilarity. These gems were from only the CCTV broadcasts of the 12/26/05 Den/GS game and the 1/2/06 NY/PHO triple overtime:

- One commentator talked about meeting Edjuardo Najera in person during last year's All-Star game. He then expressed his surprise in finding that Najera actually has really delicate and effeminate facial features, in sharp contrast to his bullish, unrefined, junk-yard hustle game.

- Comments about Pat Burke's (he "plays" for the Suns, usually after the 4 frontcourt players ahead of him on the rotation foul out--a non-blogging version of Paul Shirley) haircut ran along the lines of "If you are the 13th man off the bench, who's tall, white, can't jump, and can't shoot, you should not shave your head. It doesn't make you look mean, it just looks bad." Also, no attempts were made to stifle giggles the 3 times Pat Burke missed 16 footers.

- One commentator repeatedly made comments that belied his lack of understanding in basketball and the use of similes. He compares (imagine yourself as a defender) having your man driving down the middle of the lane as being punched in the face, down the 45% angle (he probably meant high post) as being jabbed in the side, and being beaten off the baseline as being kicked in the base of your ribs. ?

- After David Lee flushed down a 2-handed slam on a fast break off a Marbury pass, "He's white, but he's probably the best dunking Lee in the league right now." I swear this was a 90% literal translation.

- Oh yeah. Marbury's name translated into Chinese is the homonym (is this right--two words/phrases with the same sound but different meanings?) for "ignored by horse." By the way, you should know that Yao Ming is a direct phonetic translation of his Chinese name into English. Yao is actually his family name and Ming given name. Kind of like Cho Che Lien.

- After Channing Frye threw down an and-1 dunk on, and fouls out Pat Burke:

Commentator A: "(on Frye) His mother is an Emmy-award winner TV producer and his father's an educator; it's rare to see someone with a family background of culture play with such fieriness. I mean, Eddy Curry (I could be mistaken about the exact player in reference, as the Chinese translation of names are kind of confusing) I can understand, his father was a pro-football player..."

Commentator B: "Pat Burke shouldn't even bothered to jump against Frye...did you know there's a Pat Burke fanclub in his high school?"

2006

Time flies when you're doing nothing. Winter break started on a calendar day (12/23/05) and will soon end on another (1/10/06). But in between there are no dates. If not for the mounting pile of dishes in the sink I wouldn't know that 2 weeks had already gone by.

Actually things aren't so bleak. After the Civ fever abated, I've been eating and sleeping well, reading a ton (but regrettably writing and studying not as much) and dilligent on my basketball and swim workouts when the gym is open. I did my dishes yesterday and I'm ready for the phõ experiment today.

By the way, this qualifies for what I meant by juicier.