PartyPoker Anallysis

During losing streak (heretofore referred to as L, ~400 hands in 6.5 hours), saw 2% more flop than during winning streak, (hitherto referred to as W, ~1200 hands in 22 hours), and raised 2% less pre-flop. 36% to 34%, 5% to 7%.

Effects of blind defense/steal negligible due to small volume (nevertheless, during W stole 5 times as often).

Although showdown percentage similiar (L 28% W 30%), winning percentage drastically different (L 31% W 56%). Perhaps due to the high winning percentage W also won more without showdown (W 26% L 18%). Question: which is atypical, 30% or 50%?

PF aggression factor [(raise%+bet%)/call%, >1.5 aggressive <.7 passive]: W .36 L .23.

F aggression factor: W 1.25 L 1.45 (notable: L also folded 5% more often, despite being more aggressive)

T aggression factor: W 2.11 L 1.1. Question: could this be the deciding factor?

R aggression factor: W 2.32 L .84.

Total aggression factor: W .9 L .63.

After pre-flop raise: W went to showdown and win more often than L after pfr, 51% to 45%, 56% to 45%. Flop bet won without showdown: W 63% L 35%. Turn bet won without showdown: W 25% L 33%. During both flop and turn L also folded more often. Obviously the winning percentage is higher for W than L, at pf, f, t and r.

Just called pre-flop: biggest difference is, obviously, winning percentage, W 55% L 22%. Not much difference in other stats.

W suprisingly also folded more often to river bet, 58% to 42% (although the folding percentages compared to total river actions are negligible, W 2.9% L 2.6%). L folded more often on flop, 14% to 10%. However, L folded less often on turn, 5.6% to 6.8%.

For both W and L, check-raising is virtually non-existent.

Overall, I became more of a calling station during L. PFR less often, and despite following up PFR with flop aggression, I often discontinue the aggression during turn and river. Whether or not this is due to differences in card quality is in question.

Additional analysis regarding card quality. Method: created a hand filter for quality hands: AKo to A9o, AKs down to A2s, KQo to KTo, KQs to K6s, QJ, JT, T9s and 98s, all pocket pairs. Also created a hand filter for premium hands: AKs to ATo, KQs to KTs, QJs to QJo, JTs, pairs down to 88.

Quality hand result: L 105/496 (21%), W 285/1254 (22%). Premium hand result: L 54/496 (11%), W 173/1254 (14%).

54 L premium hands: 26 pfr(48%), 25 went to showdown(46%), 20 folded(37%), 7 won at showdown(13%). -.76 big bet per hand (for a net loss of $53.38, although this number is skewed due to the losing 1/2 sessions). 29% winning percentage (53% when bet/raise following pfr).

173 W premium hands: 86 pfr(50%), 71 went to showdown(41%), 75 folded(43%), 40 won at showdown(23%). +.65 big bet per hand (for a $112.5 net winning). 36% winning percentage (56% when bet/raise following pfr).

105 L quality hands: 28 pfr(27%), 32 went to showdown(30%), 45 folded(43%), 9 won at showdown(9%). -.63 big bet per hand (-$84.63 overall). 21% winning percentage.

285 W quality hands: 93 pfr(32%), 95 went to showdown(33%), 127 folded(45%), 55 won at showdown(19%). +.41 big bet per hand (+$115.75 overall, notice that this number is not much different than premium hands, indicative of cutting it even on non-premium hands). 31% winning percentage.

Can't really figure out a way to determine whether or not the big disparity is due to play pattern or just pure dumb luck. There's a difference in the frequency of premium hands, perhaps the reason why I played the quality hands more often and more passively and played the premium hands more stubbornly during L. This disparity in premium hands may also be the reason why W raised more often. Assuming that these premium and quality hands virtually play themselves and that the play pattern are for the most part consistent (which is somewhat corroborated by the numbers), I am tempted to say that it's really just pure dumb luck, at least for these monster starting hands. Although during the losing sessions I did showdown more often and fold less often with my premiums, I still can't fault myself for paying off the river.